THE SKY IS FALLING

FORMERLY CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS AND DEBATE
I thought this amended topic title was more fitting.

As those of us close to the topic realize, the global warming and climate change debate has resulted in gridlock on a number of fronts. My personal belief is that our Earth is entering a period of climate change or climate chaos which is likely to persist. Not only do I believe this trend will persist but I am almost certain that our generation will bear witness to natural events of a scale and intensity never before experienced is recorded history. When this abrupt and catastrophic shift is complete the face of our planet and our civilization will be forever changed.

Some view this line of thinking as ‘alarmist’ or ‘catastrophist’ but it is not. One must only peak into our past to understand our future. Earth’s history tells a story of constant change. Ice Ages, Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Droughts, Mega-Floods and Super-Storms have remained constant. My personal journey towards understanding has placed me in the unfortunate position of drawing my own conclusions on many things. Mankind does not know what our future holds, nor do they understand exactly why, when or how this climate change event will play out.

While some camps are convinced man is the cause of this growing chaos I am not so sure. When you sift through the rhetoric you realize that all of the experts and activists still do not know enough. They pretend that they do…but they do not. While science deals in probabilities and they have reached a quasi-consensus about global warming it is far from the ideal foundation from which to implement policy either globally or regionally. Yes, curbing CO2 emissions and developing alternative energies is critical but there are elusive and enigmatic forces working that must be identified, studied and understood for a realistic solution to become viable. We are far from pat's on the back and a job well done.

Don't even get me started on our global leadership. Is it 2008 yet? Talk about ill-timed incompetence

I will personally use this topic to present what news and data I find pertinent to topics relating to climate change. I invite you to do the same. The natural disasters I mentioned at the beginning of this post have one thing in common-- they have all been scientifically proven to be influenced by climate change.

In addition to news related to climate change and global warming I hope this topic will provoke new ideas and open discussion about every area of this phenomenon we call climate change. I challenge those with narrow perspectives to open their minds in the name of progress, understanding and hope.

Just don’t expect the same from me.

The Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/news/2006/06_08_06b.htm

http://www.passagen.uni-kiel.de/people/gb/Bartoli%20et%20al.,%2005-Plioc.pdf

While some camps are convinced man is the cause of this growing chaos I am not so sure. When you sift through the rhetoric you realize that all of the experts and activists still do not know enough. They pretend that they do…but they do not. While science deals in probabilities and they have reached a quasi-consensus about global warming it is far from the ideal foundation from which to implement policy either globally or regionally. Yes, curbing CO2 emissions and developing alternative energies is critical but there are elusive and enigmatic forces working that must be identified, studied and understood for a realistic solution to become viable. We are far from pat's on the back and a job well done.

The relationship between CO2 ppm and warming over time through glacial periods etc does seem to be reasonable. The other factors like sun intensity definately contribute and the maxium estimate of the influence from the sun in 2005-6 is ~ 30% although its more likely to be about 10%.

When looking at the the graphs of temperature over the last 1000years it does seem that if CO2 had remained constant we would currently be at least 1C cooler. The extra CO2 put into the climate system by man does seem to have upset the natural apple chart. Since the upset, natural mechanisms do seem to be involved in creating environmental chaos and may overtake creating a snowball effect. Of course this effect will be exacerabated by putting more and more GHGs into the atmosphere and man on mass has put more GHGs into the atmosphere in 2005 than any other year and the trend is for this to continue to increase.

As paradox says there are likely to many factors not dicovered or whose significance have not yet realised (e.g. The CO2 conveyor belt in the Antarctic and the recently described effect of aerosols of different colours. (light coloured aerosols (e.g. dust) act as water precipitators creating clouds whereas dark ones absorb so much heat locally arround themselves they prevent cloud formation as the water can remain in the air as vapour.)

The earth has had dramatic changes in climate character previously however currently however we are already at 20-30% biodiversity loss and large swaves of fertile land are now totally reliant on chemicals to maintain fertility. Monoculture is rampant, alien species, deforestation, dams etc etc are all striving forward. All this indicates that the capacity of the world to adapt to change has been compromised by the actions of man. It is well recognised that the greater the biodiversity in an ecological system the more healthy and robust it is and therefore the less biodiversity the less robust and more unhealthy it is.

It is slightly worrying that a large amount of the heat energy absorbed by the oceans due to global warming has a time lag of approximately 10-20years before it is reflected in the atmosphere due the thermal capacity of water.

As Paradox indicated maybe just maybe we should stop arguing and start applying the vast resource of human intelligence into creating a future environment that increases biodiversity as this is likely to stabilise the chaos or at least make the ride easier. (It is already known that hte greater the biodiversity in soil ecosystems the greater amount of CO2 they absorb and can hold).

stekim

Stekim,,

It is safe to say that both man and nature have a role in current affairs.

There is an argument about CO2 being insignificant in relation to water vapor as a GHG and a number of other challenges which cloud the issue. I guess my concern is that we may be focussing too much energy on one area of a vast and complex system. Until I see a move towards banding together, agreeing to disagree, admitting our lack of understanding and pressing forward proactively on an international level (with measurable advancements in how we approach this issue) I will continue to challenge both dominating positions. Doing so is simple which is the fundamental problem plaguing both deniers and believers. We need a massive unified international scientific effort to address climate change. Some say it is already there. I say it is not enough.

The people involved are intelligent enough to press through this bought with stagnation. At some point self preservation will overshadow the misguided politics at play here. If not we deserve whatever Mother Nature throws at us. If one thing is clear it is that our civilization is living in a fools paradise....with or without climate change.

~Paradox